Facebook May Disappear in 3 Years

Using a mathematical model based on the spread of disease developed from a presentation called, “The Social Network Disease: Epidemiology and The Demise of Facebook,” authors John Cannarella and Joshua A. Spechler suggest that if MySpace is an example of what happens to social networks, Facebook is already on the decline. “In this paper we have applied a modified epidemiological model to describe the adoption and abandonment dynamics of user activity of online social networks. Using publicly available Google data for search query Myspace as a case study, we showed that the traditional SIR model for modeling disease dynamics provides a poor description of the data. Having validated the irSIR model of OSN dynamics on Google data for search query Myspace, we then applied the model to the Google data for search query Facebook.

Very interesting read.